對於Vision Pro預購與發售，投資人該關注什麼 / What investors should look for in the Vision Pro pre-order and launch
2 min readJan 9, 2024
- Apple公佈Vision Pro發售日為2月2日，符合我先前2月初發售的預測 ( https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/1739138789006786700?s=20 ).
- Apple在去年6月發表Vision Pro時，對技術做了很好的展示，但沒有說明更重要的產品定位與關鍵應用。如果Apple能在預購或發售前提供更多產品定位與關鍵應用的相關訊息，有利延長銷售熱潮與吸引更多開發者。
- 憑藉Apple核心粉絲與重度用戶的需求，Vision Pro開始預購或發售後，應該很快就可銷售一空並顯示更久的出貨時間。若沒有，則代表Vision Pro可能需要花更久時間才能取得成功，不利Apple與相關供應鏈的短期股價表現。
- Vision Pro配備的MR/XR規格與軟體顯著超越產業平均水準，故使用者對此產品的第一印象應相當驚艷，可預期發售後在網路上可普遍見到對Vision Pro使用者體驗的高度評價。然而，新鮮感退潮後的需求熱度能否持續更為重要，這取決於Vision Pro的產品定位與關鍵應用是否清楚與正確。
- 許多投資人期待的低價版與第二代版本目前都還沒正式開案，故短期內難成為交易主題。不過，Vision Pro的市場反應應可幫助Apple迅速決定接下來的新款機種計畫，此為今年的觀察重點。
- Apple announced a February 2nd release date for the Vision Pro, in line with my earlier prediction of an early February launch (https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/1739138789006786700?s=20).
- When Apple announced the Vision Pro last June, the company did a good job showcasing the technology but left out more important information about the product’s positioning and key applications. If Apple can provide more details of these aspects before the pre-order or launch, it would help maintain sales momentum and attract more developers.
- Thanks to the demand from Apple’s core fans and heavy users, the Vision Pro should sell out soon after it is available for pre-order or sale, resulting in a longer shipping time. If not, Vision Pro may take longer to become a success, which would be detrimental to the short-term stock price performance of Apple and its supply chain.
- The Vision Pro’s MR/XR specifications and software are well above the industry average, so users are sure to be impressed by the product at first glance and can expect to see high praise for the Vision Pro’s user experience on the internet in general after the launch. However, whether the demand for Vision Pro can be sustained after the novelty wears off is even more important, depending on whether Vision Pro’s product positioning and key applications are clear and correct.
- The lower-priced and second-generation versions that many investors have been waiting for have yet to be officially kicked off and are unlikely to be a trading theme shortly. However, the market’s feedback on the Vision Pro should help Apple decide quickly on the following models to come, which is something to watch for this year.
